The Culture & Conflict Review

Enemy Insights: Inspired by Inspire? Issue 10 Published a Month before Boston Marathon Bombing

5/1/2013 12:00:00 AM

Inspire 10 (Spring 2013) has been published by AQAP, hitting the web in early March 2013. This is the second edition written and third published since the assassination of Inspire's founding editorial team, Anwar al-Awlaki and Samir Khan, by U.S. drones in late 2011. It preceded the dual-wolf attack on the 2013 Boston Marathon by only a few weeks. As with previous editions, production values are impressive, content is rich and diverse and with a return of its typical humor and wit, with a more forward-looking outlook than the previous edition mourning the loss of its editorial leadership, as if its verve and confidence has been restored along with its editorial continuity. Below is a reformatted edition suitable for speedy on-screen scrolling, easing web viewing and facilitating wider discussion by students of counter-terrorism, in contrast to the magazine's original, and bulkier, PDF format that has made it hard for netizens to scroll, probe, and analyze. We hope you find it useful as a teaching and learning tool, and for its insight into AQ communications and propaganda -- and into the mind of our opponent as the struggle continues.

China: An Emerging Economic Peer Competitor

4/1/2013 12:00:00 AM

For more than 30 years, China’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has been growing at an average annual rate of 9-10 percent. In 2010, China’s economy became the second largest in the world after that of the United States (US). Further, the International Monetary Fund forecasts China’s economy will surpass the economy of the US in 2016. However, with a population of 1.34 billion people, China’s per capita GDP is only US$8,400 compared to US$48,100 for the US. Therefore, on a per capita basis, China’s economy is ranked 120th, compared to 12th for the US. China’s growth however has brought 400 million people out of poverty, but there remains 173 million people that live on less than one US dollar per day. China’s economic prowess has garnered a lot of attention from politicians, governments, investors, economists, and defense analysts throughout the world. Some argue that China’s rising economic power will eventually surpass that of the US. Others argue that demographic, social, and economic factors will ultimately undermine China’s rise. This paper will examine whether China is likely to become an economic peer competitor of the US within the next 20 years given its demographic, social and emerging economic challenges. The analysis will be conducted within the framework of Michael Porter’s stages of economic development. In The Competitive Advantage of Nations, Michael Porter defines a model to describe the nature of the economic development of countries. According to Porter, there are four stages of economic development based on competitive advantages: factor-driven, investment-driven, innovation-driven, and wealth-driven. We utilize Porter’s model to examine China’s economic development during the period from 1978 to 2011 because it represents a major transformational time for China. For example, China implemented significant economic policy changes during this time leading to unprecedented growth, as well as its one-child policy. Specifically, we explore the potential for China to move from the investment-driven to the innovation-driven stage of development to become a possible economic peer competitor of the US. In doing so, we investigate the major prevailing issues that are challenging China’s ability to achieve this stature. As a final step, our research uses various economic data from the US and Japan as a means for comparison and as a forecasting mechanism, with Japan being the bridging economy between China and the US. Both the US and Japan are in the innovation-driven stage of economic development. For the US, we examine the period 1919 to 1952. This is when the US entered and thrived in the innovation-driven stage of economic development. The year 1919 was chosen to begin the comparative assessment because it is generally accepted as the year the US surpassed the United Kingdom to become the world’s dominant economic power. For Japan, we examine the period 1945 to 1978. This period encompasses the rebuilding of Japan’s post-war industries. This period also includes Japan’s transition from the investment-driven stage to the innovation-driven stage of development. We also selectively draw upon more recent data outside these periods to show trends and outcomes resulting from events and policies taking place during the targeted analysis periods. These comparisons will shed light on aspects of the Chinese economy that may lead to a successful evolution into the innovation-driven stage of development and peer competitiveness, and those that portend potential decline. This comparative assessment will lead to a prediction of whether China is likely to become a peer competitor of the US within the next 20 years.

Uttarakhand: Political Immaturity and the Unresolved Issue of the Permanent Capital

4/1/2013 12:00:00 AM

The creation of the Uttarakhand state in 2000 was seen as a victory of the common people who generated immense pressures through the mass movement of the 1990s for the statehood of Uttarakhand. This mass movement was unprecedented for two reasons: firstly it had participation from all the sections of the society and secondly though, initially, it was launched by the students to oppose the unjustified 27 percent OBC reservation but within no time it spread like a wild fire and engulfed all the hill areas. Later on due to the policies of the then Uttar Pradesh Government it got converted in to a movement for the creation of Uttarakhand state. From the very beginning it was an apolitical movement as the political parties and their leaders were not allowed by the groups of the agitators to share their forums or to participate in the rallies organised by them. As Uttarakhand has been a part of the big and un governable state Uttar Pradesh, therefore, after the creation of the Uttarakhand state, people naturally expected that the pace of development, democratic decentralization, governance and distribution of facilities and resources would become fast. Unfortunately, Uttarakhand still remains a saga of underdevelopment and poor governance because out of thirteen districts, the eight hill districts are still very backward and deprived of the basic facilities like water, electricity, schools, hospitals, motorable roads etc. The caste politics, regional politics, the absence of an effective leadership, administrative efficiency and political immaturity, has not allowed Uttrakhand to secure a place and

Book Review: Kingmakers: The Invention of the Modern Middle East by Karl E. Meyer and Shareen Blair Brysac

4/1/2013 12:00:00 AM

This accomplished couple has published 12 books together, this is the final book in a trilogy on the imperial experiences of Afghanistan, Pakistan and the Middle East. The first one was published in 1999 and entitled, “Tournament of Shadows.” This latest book discusses the British and American personalities that have influenced the course of the modern Middle East. The book gets off to a sluggish start, but then picks up with details and a discussion of the major British and American policymakers. It is vital to gain an appreciation of the Middle East’s colonial experience, even the term “Middle East,” was created by the famous proponent of naval power Alfred Thayer Mahan, to distinguish it from the Far East and capture its centrality in lanes of communication.

Book Review: Political Evil: What it is and How to Combat It? by Alan Wolfe

4/1/2013 12:00:00 AM

The massacre of children in Newtown, and recent bombings that have marred the Boston Marathon, coupled with America’s global effort to combat violent extremism and our history of confronting rogue regimes past and present, makes this book pondering evil generally and political evil specifically a needed part of our public discourse. Alan Wolfe is a professor of political science and director of the Boisi Center for Religion and Public Life at Boston College. His latest book, which was published in 2011 and went paperback in 2012 is an intellectually uncomfortable, yet a necessary discussion on political evil. Part one of his book helps the reader gain an understanding of what political evil is, and part two is dedicated to finding ways to combat it. As members of the United States Armed Forces, simplistic characterizations are not useful, and value judgments make identifying evil that more complex.

Book Review: Terror and Liberalism by Paul Berman

4/1/2013 12:00:00 AM

It has been my privilege to address hundreds of civilian and military Defense Department personnel on the topic of Militant Islamist ideology, Middle East political history, and the future of fighting the scourge of violent Militant Islamist groups. This has led me to ponder new tools in this 21st century conflict that must be developed and cultivated among our military leadership. While we are proficient in the military technological aspects of warfare, there is a thirst to delve into the humanistic aspects of combating groups like al-Qaida. By humanistic, I do not mean humanitarian operations, but immersing ourselves in the new tools of war such as countering a philosophical, ideological, and narrow abuse of the Islamic faith to weave the pseudo-intellectual ideology of Militant Islamist Theory. These are theories in which fragments of Islam is pieced together with fragments of western philosophy, to justify violence in the accomplishment of political objectives. Sayyid Qutb, considered the most influential theorist by militant Islamists, not only was versed in Islam from which to conduct his selective interpretation, he was heavily influenced by western philosophical thought on the nature of man, and the western critique of obsessive materialism. We must be better students of Qutb, Abdul-Wahab, Ibn Taymiyyah, Mawduddi, and much more to begin highlighting aspects of their work that inspire violence, but more importantly aspects of their work suppressed and marginalized in Militant Islamist websites and al-Qaida statements. Paul Berman has been described as liberal hawk, who advocated the invasion of Iraq and Afghanistan on the basis of a concept called “liberal interventionism,” the promotion of liberal democratic freedoms. He is not without his critics; however his 2003 book “Terror and Liberalism” is a welcome immersion into the language of militant, revolutionary and radical thought.

Book Announcement: Culture, Conflict and Counterinsurgency now in production for summer release!

4/1/2013 12:00:00 AM

We are pleased to announce that our new book on the anthropological and cultural dimensions of counterinsurgency, with case studies drawn from South Asia -- Culture, Conflict and Counterinsurgency -- is now in production and will be published this coming summer by Stanford University Press, with contributions from leading theorists of applied anthropology, counterinsurgency strategy, and the cultural dimensions of international conflict.

Terrorism and Popular Support: A Matter of Interests

4/1/2013 12:00:00 AM

The purpose of this paper is to highlight a misalignment in the United States strategy to defeat al Qaeda, in the current National Strategy for Counterterrorism (NSCT, 2011), the National Security Strategy (NSS, 2010) and the National Defense Strategy (NDS). At the heart of this misalignment in strategy is an over reliance placed on universal values. This focus on values is problematic for two fundamental reasons: first, whether “universal” or not, it has detracted from U.S. interests while reinforcing a perception of validity of al Qaeda’s religion-based propaganda. This misunderstanding emphasizes the religious-based argument that al Qaeda has used since 1996 in defining their struggle in terms of freedom from influence and religious persecution. In addition, it detracts from the importance of interest, a focus on values also allows for a justifiable claim of western hypocrisy by al Qaeda when the United States acts in its own interests instead of in support of its values. Instead of values, the United States should speak to shared interests and act on those common interests. This paper operates on the premise that human behavior is incentive-based and that groups of people are driven to support organizations and causes based on what is in their best interests. Without common political goals and interests, a population will not support a terrorist group or any other organization for that matter. It is the relationship of interests (of the population) to provider (organization, terrorist or otherwise) that determines whether people support terrorist organizations. We believe that the support of a population for either the terrorist or the counterterrorist is based on the answer to two fundamental questions. First, which group (terrorist or counterterrorist) will be able to get me (the population) the better deal? Second, which group is going to win? In order to get at the crux of these questions in relationship to U.S. efforts to defeat al Qaeda, the following two questions will be addressed via hypothesis testing of variables based on human needs theory: 1) The population’s opinion of the United States and their support for terrorism; 2) What drives a population to withdraw support for terrorism?

Review: The Moroccan Perspective on the Western Sahara: Moroccan Flag Officer Shares His View of this Ongoing Conflict

6/1/2012 12:00:00 AM

The conflict over Western Sahara is one that involves the disorderly transference of Spanish colonial rule, ideological differences between Algeria and Morocco, the issue of self-determination, as well as the national obsession by all segments of Moroccan society regarding possession of this territory. It is perhaps the one of the biggest roadblocks hindering the five-nation Arab-Maghreb Union (AMU) from realizing its full potential. No Moroccan leader can waiver on the issue of the Western Sahara and expect to survive politically. Moroccan retired Colonel-Major Bouriyala writes a unique book that looks into the history of the conflict between the Frente Popular de Liberacion de Saguia el-Hamra y Rio de Oro (Polisario), Algeria, Mauritania, and Morocco. His book is entitled, “Al-Sahraa’ Al-Gharbiya Al-Maghribiya min Khilaal Al-Tareekh wal Diplomasia Al-Hasniya (The Moroccan Western Sahara from a Historical and Diplomatic Vantage),” and is published in Arabic by Al-Talib Publishing in Rabat, Morocco in 2002.

Review: Delving into the Realities of Politics and the Army in the Caliphate: The Writings of Omar Farouk Fawzy on the Umayyad and Abbasid Caliphates

6/1/2012 12:00:00 AM

The long war on terrorism necessitates that we immerse ourselves in books of military significance published in Arabic, as all war is fought in the mind first. These books can range from those written by terrorists, those combating terrorism, to the subject of this essay, the Umayyad Caliphate, a period that came three decades after the death of Prophet Muhammad in 632 CE. Dr. Omar Farouk Fawzy (hereafter referred to as Fawzy) is an Iraqi historian, and among the few Arabs who specialize in the history of the Umayyad and Abbasid Caliphates. His books form a part of my course as my students and I discuss the obsession Militant Islamists have in re-establishing the Caliphate as a long-term inter-generational objective. This necessitates a closer examination of this institution, beyond the sound bites al-Qaida provides to appeal to segments of the Muslim world.