This research began in April 2010 and concludes in Spring 2011. The four research tasks are:

T1: TRADOC Analysis Center (TRAC) will provide a report that assesses, at a minimum, the validation of IW data, to include an examination of data requirements, data sources, and data availability as well as derivation of data.

T2: TRAC will initiate and complete a case study that assesses, at a minimum, the appropriateness of the CG model for adaptation to an Afghanistan scenario. This will include an assessment of the differences in data requirements and data sources required to adapt the model from an Iraq to an Afghanistan scenario.

T3: Update the VV&A best practices report with lessons learned and refinements based on results from Requirements 3.1 and 3.2.

T4: Provide a white paper that describes the first year of operation of the TRAC data collection cell (forward) in Afghanistan, to include operating procedures, AARs, lessons learned, and data sources.

This collaborative research investigated the development, evaluation and delivery of complete, operational prototypes of various, optimization-based planning systems for supporting the Maritime Operations Center (MOC) and Maritime Headquarters planning staff in a wide range of maritime operational missions: Strike; Information, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance; Theater Security and Cooperation; Theater Ballistic Missile Defense; Anti-submarine Warfare; Logistics routing; Transit planning; Maritime Interdiction Operations. These planners could be integrated, ultimately, into a larger Command and Control (C2) planning suite to provide local staff with the ability to quickly generate course of actions based on concept of operations, and potential enemy courses of actions for further evaluation.

This partnership with JHU/APL under the Cooperative Research and Development Agreement (CRADA NCRADA-NPS-09-0132) jointly researched and developed a series of optimization-based decision-support tools to aid in operational maritime mission planning. An additional goal was for any developed decision aids to be incorporated into a Service-Oriented Architecture (SOA) that will integrate and display its situational and operational data by applying optimization to discover and recommend a best course of action from which the planner can choose.

SASIO enables the use of integrated analytic models for generating, maintaining, and enhancing situational awareness for numerous operational contexts. These models include a probabilistic representation of likely target locations in the area of operations (AO) as well as a method for integrating new information (e.g., intel injects), a stochastic process model for describing the possible motions of enemy elements in the AO, and also an optimization model for determining the best location(s) to search using limited ISR resources. The operator interface to these SASIO models is through the decision support tool, SASIO:Command, which provides visualization of the current situational awareness map (i.e., probabilities of target presence in different locations), Blue Force status and location information, as well as interactive panels for inputting gathered information and generating optimized search routes. Further, the network-capable SASIO:Command software facilitates machine-to-machine communication for receiving information, e.g., intelligence reports, from multiple data sources and, if needed, transmitting information, e.g., tasking commands, to consumers.

In particular, operational threads in JEFX10-3 utilizing SASIO:Command included the Joint Convoy Protection (JCP), Joint Raid Insertion (JRI), Joint Personnel Recovery (JPR), and Urban Targeting (UT) threads. The need to allocate an available ISR asset, for example, the Buster or T-Raven UAVs, in these threads provided opportunities to demonstrate the benefit of decision support generated by the SASIO modeling framework.

A number of limitations of SASIO were identified through the course of the experimentation. The SASIO modeling framework is designed for surveillance missions; however, in addition to surveillance there is often a need to conduct tactical target tracking. Attempts to use SASIO to provide real-time situational awareness on tracked targets were ineffective. Further, the current SASIO models for target motion require only one type of targets (e.g., dismounts versus mounted threats) present in the AO. The ability to address heterogeneous target motion types would enhance the applicability of the SASIO models to more realistic settings. Also, the validity and quality of information varies with the source of the data, such that addition of user specification of the “trustworthiness” of incoming intelligence would aid in the fidelity of the resulting situational awareness map. Another limitation in the search route optimization is the simplified heuristic (“search the most likely location weighted by distance”) used, which fails to capture additional constraints such as denied flight areas (e.g., locations where surface-to-air threats may be present) or remaining endurance of assets.

From Quicklook memo issued by COMSECONDFLT, 10 May 2010

Use of SASIO enabled a reduction in the time to develop a search plan, even in the scenarios of limited search complexity encountered in JEFX10-3. This time savings was projected by participants to be more significant as search complexity increased. Use cases for which SASIO was identified as valuable included complex search problems (e.g., large number of targets and/or ISR assets, large search area, complex topography), taking into consideration ISR asset limitations such as remaining endurance and/or dealing with dynamic search problems. Limitations of the current version of SASIO include a need for more search objectives (e.g., minimize time to detect) and more robust target and blue force motion models. As expected, SASIO was found to have more utility in broad area search situations than in close tracking of targets.

From Dr. Tom Forbes, C2F Science Advisor, in reference to meeting with Commander, Second Fleet, VADM Williams, 25 May 2010

One of the recommendations made was to "consider putting SASIO to sea for use in confined waters or straits transit." He agreed in principle with the recommendation and asked us to work with the C2F N7 (Director of Training) and CTF 26 (Amphibious task Force) to consider using SASIO during pre-deployment training work-up cycles where the ARG/MEU and Naval Expeditionary Forces (e.g. Riverine or Naval Construction Battalion) training cycles overlap.

We consider a social/economic/political situation comprising several stakeholders.

We examine Lebanese Hezbollah and its interactions with other entities; however this analysis can be applied to other scenarios. The situation evolves over (discrete) time, with the stakeholders taking observable actions at each time step. We formulate a Markov decision process to drive the model dynamics. At each stage every stakeholder is characterized by a state and for each state we associate a set of feasible actions that the stakeholder may take. At the end of each stage, depending on the actions taken by all stakeholders, the state of each stakeholder changes.

Provided two research teams in support of research issues identified by the TLCM-WG. The research topics were:

1.  LAV Automated Data Collection Assessment
   Team 1: Dr Dan Nussbaum, Mr Greg Mislick, Lecturer, and Capt Andy Burrow
2. TLCM-AT Model Assessment, Simulation Development and Analysis.
   Team 2: Dr Gary Horne and Ms Mary MacDonald, RA

LAV Automated Data Collection Assessment: The Marine Corps School of Infantry (SOl) West had collected data for Light Armored Vehicles (LAV) using both manual and automatic methods. The objectives of this research was to determine what, if any, errors are introduced to data collected under an automated data collection system, and what data collection, cleansing and modeling techniques should be used to adjust for these errors. During this research it was discovered that serious data collection flaws existed in the SOI collection plan. Consequently, the research used available data to establish a recommended statistical process for future data collection, and provided the sponsor with recommendations to correct the data collection process.

TLCM-AT Model Assessment, Simulation Development and Analysis: This work focused on identification of any built in assumptions in TLCM-AT, then assessed the impact of these assumptions on commonly used outputs, and provided a practical recommendations on minimizing any major impacts. This research did not identify any assumptions in the code or outputs that had a major impact on the results of various maintenance scenarios and consequently provided the sponsor with a high level of assurance that the model acted appropriately within the scenarios provided.

The Naval Postgraduate School supported and coordinated the submission, selection, and contracting of SBIRs/STTRs applications for the ONR. This support focused on technologies that support the counternarcotics/counterterrorism missions of DoD. It addressed the full spectrum of counternarcotics/counterterrorism related research, development of technology and engineering products. The purpose of this effort was to provide COCOMs with operational, applied services and equipment that would aid in disrupting, deterring and denying the flow of drugs, people, money, and weapons related to illegal trafficking.
A call for proposals was published and several candidate companies were identified and vetted by the selection team. The team provided the ONR SBIR manager’s office:

1. Analysis and recommendations for prioritizing strategic goals of theprogram, budget planning, resource allocation and budget execution.
2. Analyses and recommendations to ONR SBIR manager upon demand.
3. Responded to all requests for information within 5 working days.
4. Submitted final FY program selections, with budgetary guidance in an Excel Format.

ONR made the final selection of the candidate companies. Upon the ONR decision, the selection team completed the necessary documentation and monitored the activities of the awardees.

OSD, CAPE requests that the PI secure an NPS student (or two) to conduct thesis research on costing topics of interests to both DoD and OSD, CAPE. This year, the research was conducted by an OA4702 Cost Estimation student, Major Bradley Sams, a student in the Information Systems and Technology Department. He is presently working on a thesis that is researching how software maintenance cost estimation is conducted, and attempting to find ways to better predict that maintenance cost using historical data. He is working with NAVAIR, the Air Force Cost Analysis Agency, and OSD/CAPE on this research. He is scheduled to graduate in September 2011.

The intent of the proposal is to pay for all travel and expenses incurred by the thesis students during their TDY to various cost organizations (R6ABA). Major Sams travelled to Washington, DC, and visited the commands working on this topic. The proposal also allows for the PI to attend the annual DoD Cost Symposium in February sponsored by OSD, CAPE (R64BA). It is a gathering of numerous cost estimators in the country, from DoD, industry, and academia. The four day symposium connect cost estimators and analysts in a highly informative fashion with the goal of increasing the accuracy of weapon acquisition cost estimates, and understanding how to deal with the risks that are inherent in large, state-of-the-art weapon systems purchases. It also offered a useful selection of educational and training opportunities on best practices, and the state-of-the-art in cost estimating. Information gained during this symposium is then added to the course material for the OA4702 Cost Estimation class, keeping it continually relevant and current.

The Vulture program is being developed by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA). The end goal of the Vulture program is to develop a high altitude long endurance (HALE) unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) that is capable of maintaining a 1,000-pound payload on station for five years. The DARPA goals for the Vulture program include, at a minimum, the development and demonstration of advanced reliability technologies for the proposed future Vulture system. It is envisioned that Vulture will provide affordable, persistent coverage over an area of interest for surveillance and communications relay missions.

The study estimated the potential cost savings and identified other benefits associated with the potential operational use of Vulture. This study conducted a business case analysis (BCA) comparing the estimated costs of the Vulture program to those of the Global Hawk and Global Observer systems. Sensitivity analyses were as part of a Master’s Thesis performed on the cost variables, as well as a general risk assessment for Vulture.

In CY2010, I delivered seminars on meteorology and oceanography (METOC) forecasting for decision support, including introduction to value of information and identifying high-impact decisions in a Navy context, and new connections to the Watchfloor of the Future (WOTF) initiative:

• Nine training sessions in March, to personnel of the Naval Maritime Forecast Center (30), Naval Aviation Forecast Center Norfolk (76), and Strike Group Oceanography Team (28). In addition, the team who was working to develop the Standard Forecasting Process for the WOTF was in town for a prior meeting, and therefore we conducted an interactive discussion with them. We also gave a short brief to three personnel from the Professional Development Center.
• Two sessions to 7 officers, 20 enlisted personnel and 1 civilian of the Naval Meteorology and Oceanography Center at Yokosuka in June.
• Four sessions to 6 officers, 20 enlisted personnel and 5 civilians in the Naval Marine Forecast Center in Pearl Harbor.

This study examined the effect of alterations in the timing of sleep within the circadian cycle on the amount of total nightly sleep and its influence on various indicators of mood and performance of U.S. Army Soldiers attending Basic Combat Training (BCT) at Fort Leonard Wood, Missouri. The quasi-experimental study design compared Soldiers assigned to one of two training companies: a company using the standard BCT sleep regimen (8:30 p.m. to 4:30 a.m.) or a company using a phase-delayed sleep regimen (11:00 p.m. to 7:00 a.m.), the latter being more in line with the biologically driven sleep-wake patterns of adolescents. Demographic and psycho-physiological measures were collected at the start of the study using standard survey instruments and methods. A random sample of approximately 24% of Soldiers wore wrist activity monitors to unobtrusively record sleep quantity and quality. Weekly assessments were made of subjective fatigue and mood throughout BCT. Data on physical fitness, marksmanship, and attrition from BCT were extracted from organizational training records.

The study sample was comprised of 392 Soldiers, 209 in the intervention group and 183 in the comparison group. Based on actigraphic data, it was shown that Soldiers on the modified sleep schedule obtained 33 more minutes of total sleep per night than those on the standard sleep schedule. Soldiers in the intervention group reported less total mood disturbance relative to baseline, but the effect size was modest and diminished over the course of BCT. Improvements in Soldier marksmanship performance over a series of record fires was positively correlated with average nightly sleep during the week preceding the record fires, when basic marksmanship tasks were being learned. By the end of BCT, Soldiers in the comparison group were 2.3 times more likely to have occupationally significant fatigue and were 5.5 times more likely to report poor sleep quality, as assessed using validated survey instruments, than those in the comparison group. There was no effect of the sleep scheduling intervention on physical fitness scores or the relative risk for attrition. Overall, increasing sleep and concomitantly decreasing fatigue had a small but measurable influence on various indicators of Soldier functioning even after controlling for a variety of factors that affect performance.