Acquisition
U.S. Marine Corps photo by Lance Cpl. Richard PerezGarcia. This image was cropped to show detail. This image was edited using multiple filters, and dodging and burning techniques.
Systemic Underestimation of Weapons Development
Robert Larino, Defense Acquisition University
DOD persistently struggles with systemic underestimation in weapons development, driven by an often-unintentional bias towards overly optimistic projections for project cost, time, and effort.
- Optimism's Peril: A deep-seated "conspiracy of optimism" has for decades led to unrealistic expectations in defense acquisition.
- Streamlining's Limitations: The persistence of systemic underestimation suggests that acquisition reforms that focus on streamlining bureaucracy and reducing requirements are not sufficient to address the underlying issues.
- Strategic Shift: To counter systemic underestimation, DOD must foster a culture of realism and incentivize accurate cost and schedule estimations.
A marketplace for mission-ready AI: Accelerating capability delivery to the Pentagon
Jack Long, Bharat C. Patel, and Jags Kandasamy, Atlantic Council
This report from the Atlantic Council proposes a "performance-driven AI model marketplace" for DOD. The proposed framework aims to foster open competition, rapid iteration, and real-world validation, ensuring mission-ready AI solutions are delivered with speed and scale.
- Agile Acquisition: Flexible contracting pathways (like Commercial Solutions Opening for prototyping and Blanket Purchase Agreements for scaling) enable rapid procurement of new and proven models, avoiding long-term vendor lock-in and fostering quick innovation cycles.
- Pay-for-Performance: The proposed marketplace would shift compensation to a pay-for-performance model, where vendors are paid solely based on actual model usage, thereby eliminating upfront funding and ensuring the DOD invests only in high-performing, deployed solutions.
- Hardware Agnostic: Model pricing would be independent of compute costs, with models designed to run on government hardware. This gives users the flexibility to run models on their infrastructure of their choice.
Defense & Strategy
A Jump 20 group 3 Unmanned Aerial System conducts a flight to provide surveillance for maritime interception operations during Amphibious Ready Group Marine Expeditionary Unit exercise (ARGMEUEX), while underway in the Atlantic Ocean, May 15, 2025. (U.S. Marine Corps photo by Sgt. Nathan Mitchell)
Drones Are Game-Changing, But They Are Not the Answer to the Inherent Challenges of Land War
Amos Fox, Small Wars Journal
Drones are revolutionizing military operations by changing doctrine, tactics, and procurement, but they are not strategically decisive in land warfare because they inherently lack the capability to control ground.
- Auxiliary Role: Drones are valuable auxiliaries to combined arms, joint, and multidomain operations, but they are not replacements for legacy ground systems like artillery, engineers, or armored platforms.
- Policy Imperative: Policymakers must prioritize rugged, resilient, and mobile land forces capable of closing with, controlling, and holding terrain.
- Drone Innovation: Innovation efforts should focus on the air-ground littoral, which is crucial for maintaining operational and tactical mobility for land forces. Drones and mobile short-range air defense should be viewed as a protective shield that enables the striking power of ground operations.
Related: The Drone and AI Delusion
Industry
Grid Aero’s Lifter Lite drone. Courtesy of Grid Aero
New Startup Unveils Autonomous Cargo Drones for Distributed Ops in the Pacific
Greg Hadley, Air & Space Forces
Grid Aero has unveiled its "Lifter Lite" autonomous cargo drones, designed as "flying pickup trucks" intended to enhance supply chain resilience in contested environments, particularly in vast areas like the Pacific theater.
- Logistics Solution: The drone pitched as a solution for agile combat employment (ACE), which involves dispersing Airmen and aircraft to smaller, remote bases to make them harder to hit.
- Cargo Capacity: Lifter Lite has a capacity of 1,000 to 8,000 pounds and a range of some 1,500 miles. This approach aims to distribute cargo assets across many aircraft so that if one is lost in a contested environment, the mission can continue.
- Rugged Design: The drone built to be cheap and tough, with a simple cargo bay and landing gear engineered for rough runways, including enough redundancies to operate even if parts are not fully functioning or are destroyed.
We have the defense industrial base we contracted for a generation ago. Can it meet today’s demands?
Terry Gerton, Federal News Network
This interview with David Norquist, President and CEO of the National Defense Industrial Association, explores how the defense industry, shaped by policies from the post-Cold War era, now struggles to meet modern demands.
- Risk Prioritization: DOD acknowledges that administrative delays shift operational risk to the warfighter. The focus must be on designing systems to prioritize rapid delivery of needed technology to military personnel.
- Demand & Capacity: Increased demands from great power competition strain the base's fragile supply chains. Stable demand signals and capacity investment, such as multi-year munitions contracts, are crucial; current policies penalize unused capacity.
- Stable Funding: Recent defense funding through reconciliation bills targets innovation and industrial capacity. This funding is vital, avoiding disruptions from continuing resolutions (CRs) that caused prior munition backlogs.
Research
Shipyard personnel examine the USS Arlington's keel at a dry dock in Norfolk, Va., Sept. 20, 2023. The Arlington is undergoing scheduled maintenance and upgrades to increase warfighting capabilities and capacity. (Photo by Navy Lt. Cmdr. Nathaniel Bendickson)
Revamping Shipbuilding Capabilities in the United States: A Catalyst to Make America Great Again
Barnabas Ochogwu Ali, Journal of Transportation Technologies
This paper proposes a strategic pathway for shipbuilding industry revitalization by leveraging Industry 4.0 technologies, such as Three-Dimensional Laser Scanning (3DLS), Additive Manufacturing (AM), Product Life-cycle Management (PLM), and the integration of intelligent ship (i-Ship) systems. Preliminary findings suggest that the adoption of these commercially available technologies can achieve substantial cost savings and increased value.
The UK’s F-35 capability
UK National Audit Office
This assessment of the UK's F-35 program highlights both program benefits and the program's dependency on the US Joint Program Office (JPO). This dependency has led to persistent challenges for the UK, including delayed aircraft deliveries, rising costs, and issues with aircraft availability and weapon integration.
Conference Proceedings on U.S.-Indian Security and Defense Industrial Cooperation in the Asia-Pacific
John V. Parachini, Vivek Mishra, et al., RAND
Theses conference proceedings highlight expanding U.S.-Indian security and defense industrial cooperation, detailing its strategic motivations, opportunities in the regional arms markets, and the benefits and challenges of joint defense production initiative from both an Indian and American perspective.
Shipbuilding to Improve Domestic Supply Chains: Opportunities and Challenges
John Frittelli, Congressional Research Service
This report reviews current and proposed legislation on shipbuilding in the context of existing weaknesses in the current commercial fleet and related supply chains.
Opportunities
Photo by Sora Shimazaki via Pexels
Public-Private Talent Exchange (PPTE) Program
Defense Acquisition University
Hosting opportunity submissions are now open for Public-Private Talent Exchange (PPTE) Program. PPTE is a competitive, acquisition-focused professional development program created to foster partnership opportunities and enhance communication between government and industry.
GSA seeks ideas on AI's role in procurement overhaul
Ross Wilkers, NextGov
The General Services Administration (GSA)is seeking industry input on how artificial intelligence (AI) can revolutionize the entire acquisition ecosystem.
RFI: GSA - Procurement Ecosystem Initiative - Market Research
Events
2025 Navy Summit
Potomac Officers Club
26 August 2025
McLean, VA
Intelligent Ships Symposium
American Society of Naval Engineers
26-28 August 2025
Philadelphia, PA
2025 Space Warfighter Forum: Peace Through Strength
National Defense Industrial Association (NDIA)
26-28 August 2025
Colorado Springs, CO
2025 Emerging Technologies for Defense
Emerging Technologies Institute
27-29 August 2025
Washington, DC
DefenseNews Conference: Deterring Threats from the Indo-Pacific
DefenseNews
Washington, DC or Virtual
3 September 2025
Creative Disruptors by the Lakes
Creative Defense Foundation
11-12 September 2025
Eagan, MN
2025 Undersea Warfare Fall Conference
National Defense Industrial Association (NDIA)
15-17 September 2025
Groton, CT
Fleet Maintenance and Modernization Symposium (FMMS) 2025
American Society of Naval Engineers
23-25 September 2025
San Diego, CA
One more thing...
Hyman G. Rickover, Rear Admiral, USN, Director, Division on Naval Reactors, U.S. Energy Research and Development Administration, at the launching of USS GROTON (SSN-694) and keel laying of DALLAS SSN-700 at General Dynamics Electric Boat Division, Groton, Connecticut on 9 October 1976. Photo: National Archives.
Doing a Job
Adm. Hyman G. Rickover, GovLeaders.org
"Human experience shows that people, not organizations or management systems, get things done. For this reason, subordinates must be given authority and responsibility early in their careers. In this way they develop quickly and can help the manager do his work. The manager, of course, remains ultimately responsible and must accept the blame if subordinates make mistakes. [...]
"The Defense Department does not recognize the need for continuity in important jobs. It rotates officer every few years both at headquarters and in the field. The same applies to their civilian superiors.
This system virtually ensures inexperience and nonaccountability. By the time an officer has begun to learn a job, it is time for him to rotate. Under this system, incumbents can blame their problems on predecessors. They are assigned to another job before the results of their work become evident. Subordinates cannot be expected to remain committed to a job and perform effectively when they are continuously adapting to a new job or to a new boss."
Read the rest of Admiral Rickover's 1982 speech at Columbia University.
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