Acquisition
A Space X Falcon 9 rocket launches from Space Launch Complex 40 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, Florida, Feb. 14, 2024. The rocket was launched as part of classified mission USSF-124, sending six satellites to orbit - two for the Missile Defense Agency and four for the Space Development Agency. (U.S. Space Force photo by Airman 1st Class Spencer Contreras)
Want to fix acquisition? Start with the program managers.
Maj. Reed “Jimi” Schafer, Breaking Defense
To overcome persistent delays and cost overruns in air and space programs, the Department of the Air Force must reform its outdated "on-the-job" learning culture for program managers by adopting rigorous, industry-standard certifications.
- Frontline Decision-Makers: Program managers serve as the essential link between technology and deployment, making the pivotal choices regarding contracts and schedules that determine whether systems reach the battlefield in time.
- Risky Training Models: The vast majority of military acquisition training is currently conducted "on the job," creating a trial-and-error environment that gambles project success on luck rather than structured, proven methodology.
- Industry-Proven Standards: Transitioning to the Project Management Professional (PMP) certification—a global standard already used by NASA and the Army Corps of Engineers—can significantly increase the likelihood of projects staying within scope and on schedule.
- Proven Historical Success: Past achievements, such as GPS modernization and the rapid fielding of blast-resistant trucks during the Iraq War, demonstrate that disciplined management can compress development timelines from years to months.
Valley of Value Destruction
Marlinspike
The Pentagon typically buys hardware in finite batches, leading to a massive revenue collapse for startups once initial production ends and only low-margin maintenance remains. To avoid this "Valley of Value Destruction," the author suggests transitioning from a traditional procurement model to Capability-as-a-Service (CaaS), which mirrors modern software subscriptions by providing stable, recurring cash flows. By adopting this service-based framework, the defense industry can foster a more resilient industrial base that aligns slow government budgeting cycles with the rapid pace of technological innovation.
Defense & Strategy
The military’s fabled ‘human in the loop’ for AI is dangerously misleading
Mikey Dickerson, DefenseNews
The concept of a "human in the loop" is a dangerously misleading safeguard when applied to complex military AI systems. Because AI introduces probabilistic and unpredictable failure modes into high-stakes environments, relying on a person to catch errors creates a false sense of security without providing actual control.
- Atrophied Human Judgment: Constant reliance on automated systems causes operator attention to wane and professional skills to decline, eventually rendering them incapable of meaningfully supervising the technology they are meant to govern.
- Strategic Blind Spots: Using "human in the loop" as a "fig leaf" for military targeting creates a dangerous level of confidence without actual control, potentially allowing opaque algorithms to influence where munitions land.
- Accelerated Failure Modes. As AI is integrated into mission-critical infrastructure, it introduces new vulnerabilities faster than organizations can understand or control them.
Why military fellowships at civilian universities matter
Craig Wonson, Navy Times
Retired Marine Colonel Craig Wonson argues that the Pentagon should reverse its decision to eliminate Senior Service College fellowships at civilian universities because these programs provide unique strategic perspectives and foster vital civil-military dialogue. By immersing senior officers in elite academic environments, the military develops leaders capable of navigating complex global challenges through interdisciplinary thinking.
- Beyond Tactical Training: Senior officers often arrive at these fellowships with decades of operational expertise but lack the broad strategic vantage point and leadership depth provided by top-tier civilian institutions.
- Shattering Outdated Stereotypes: Direct engagement between active-duty personnel and academic communities helps overcome historical biases and misconceptions that have persisted since the Vietnam War era.
- Strengthening Civil-Military Dialogue: By interacting with future policymakers on campus, senior officers help build the foundational relationships and mutual understanding necessary for effective national security.
- Critical Thinking Demands: The increasingly complex nature of modern global threats requires a military leadership capable of thinking across diverse disciplines and engaging in rigorous, multi-sided intellectual debates.
Government Reports & Testimony
Airmen from the 355th Equipment Maintenance Squadron's munitions flight build up and break down aerial bombs during the Bushwhacker 18-02 Cactus Flag exercise at Davis-Monthan Air Force Base, Ariz., Feb. 12, 2018. (Air Force photo by Airman 1st Class Giovanni Sims)
Full Committee Hearing to receive testimony on Low-Cost Munitions
Senate Armed Services Committee
Quantum Computing: Updating the National Strategy Could Promote U.S. Leadership
Government Accountability Office
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers: Continued Use of Other Transaction Agreements for Civil Works Research and Prototypes
Government Accountability Office
The Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) System (Updated 3/23/26)
Congressional Research Service
Defense Primer: Strategic Nuclear Forces
Congressional Research Service
Research
A rendering of the Constellation-class frigate. Credit: Fincantieri Marine Group
Constellation: A Case Study of the Effective Use of the Triple Constraint Model & Understanding Cognitive Biases for Navy Acquisition Management
Marshall Grimm, Stephen West, & Marcienne Anderson, Naval Postgraduate School
This study examines the Constellation-class frigate program, its implementation of the triple constraint model, and any cognitive biases that prevented the delivery of the frigate on time and at a fair and reasonable cost. Using case study analysis and deductive content analysis, the study investigates GAO reports and Congressional Research Service reports to determine the use of the triple constraint model and cognitive biases within the Constellation-class frigate program. The analysis finds evidence of six cognitive biases within the Constellation-class frigate program. These include the anchoring, availability, planning fallacy uniqueness, overconfidence, and optimism biases. The authors suggest using a modified triple constraint model, education programs for program managers, extending program managers’ formal networks, and including commercial project management methodologies within MDAPs.
Analytic Capabilities to Support Logistics Analyses
RAND
RAND Project AIR FORCE has developed numerous analytic tools that have directly informed U.S. Air Force investment decisions over more than 75 years of collaboration. This publication highlights eight such tools that can be used to explore logistics challenges in requirements determination, storage and prepositioning, transportation, and the operational impact of logistics support and illuminates the trade space of decisions they can help inform.
The Controllability Trap: A Governance Framework for Military AI Agents
Subramanyam Sahoo, ICLR Proceedings
Agentic AI systems - capable of goal interpretation, world modeling, planning, tool use, long-horizon operation, and autonomous coordination - introduce distinct control failures not addressed by existing safety frameworks. We identify six agentic governance failures tied to these capabilities and show how they erode meaningful human control in military settings. We propose the Agentic Military AI Governance Framework (AMAGF), a measurable architecture structured around three pillars: Preventive Governance (reducing failure likelihood), Detective Governance (real-time detection of control degradation), and Corrective Governance (restoring or safely degrading operations). Its core mechanism, the Control Quality Score (CQS), is a composite real-time metric quantifying human control and enabling graduated responses as control weakens. For each failure type, we define concrete mechanisms, assign responsibilities across five institutional actors, and formalize evaluation metrics.
Building the Arsenal: Securing the Components to Sustain Combat Power
Catarina Buchatskiy & Ihor Fedirko, Snake Island Institute
Ukrainian arms and military equipment manufacturers have demonstrated unprecedented progress in developing advanced technologies to counter the aggressor. Today, however, as we consider the future growth and scaling of the defense technology sector, localization has become a critical priority. This study highlights both the progress already made in localization and the structural barriers that persist. Survey findings show that Ukrainian defense producers are united in their determination to localize production and reduce vulnerabilities stemming from foreign supply chains. Sustained co-production, industrial investment, and technology partnerships are essential to transform resilience into true independence.
Events
Sea-Air-Space
Navy League of the United States
19-22 April 2026
National Harbor, Maryland
Xponential USA
11-14 May 2026
Detroit, MI
Converge @ NPS
Naval Postgraduate School Foundation
22-24 July 2026
2026 Air and Space Summit
Potomac Officers Club
30 July 2026
One more thing...
The USS Edsall (DD-219) was lost with all hands on 1 March 1942. (Naval History and Heritage Command)
Her Brother Went Down with the Edsall: A WAVES Officer’s Mission to Preserve Naval Memory
Samuel Limneos, Naval History
Barbara Gilmore, a WAVES officer driven by the loss of her brother aboard the USS Edsall, dedicated nearly 40 years to building the U.S. Navy’s operational archives to ensure naval sacrifices were never forgotten. Her work transformed a chaotic mountain of wartime records into a professionalized system that continues to preserve the service's history.
- Breaking Barriers: Barred from the Naval Academy because of her gender, Barbara joined the WAVES in 1944 and was eventually assigned to the Office of Naval Records and Library to manage the crushing volume of wartime documentation.
- Operational Chaos: During World War II, the Navy shifted from passive curation to active collection of "war diaries," creating a massive backlog of highly classified operational intelligence that physically overwhelmed staff and storage facilities.
- Methodizing the Kaleidoscope: Barbara and her colleagues implemented a unique "methodizing" system, organizing records by command hierarchy and chronology rather than traditional archival principles to better reflect the fluid nature of naval warfare.
- Documenting the Cost: For Barbara, indexing destroyer logs and casualty lists was a personal crusade to ensure the Navy remembered its costs; she treated every document as a record of a life rather than just paperwork.
- Enduring Memorial: When she retired as deputy director in 1983, Barbara left behind a professionalized archive, designed to preserve the truth of naval operations for future generations.
- Uncovering the Truth: In 2024, the historical records Barbara helped organize were instrumental in locating the wreck of the Edsall 18,000 feet deep in the Indian Ocean, finally identifying her brother’s final resting place.
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