Acquisition
Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, Emil Michael, under secretary of war for research and engineering, and Alexander R. Lovett, deputy assistant secretary of war for prototyping and experimentation, look at a multidomain autonomous display during the Rapid Prototype Display event at the Pentagon Center Courtyard, Arlington, Virginia, on July 16, 2025. The event showcased cutting-edge technologies under accelerated development to support joint operations in multiple domains. (Photo by Pfc. Jose Rolando Garcia, Army Multimedia and Visual Information Division)
Deferred Consequences: Sustainment Risk in Experimentation and Prototyping
Robert F. Briar, Behind the Front Lines
The U.S. Army is increasingly utilizing rapid prototyping and Middle Tier Acquisition (MTA) pathways to outpace technological disruption and strategic competition with adversaries. However, this institutional drive for speed risks creating "future liabilities" by neglecting long-term sustainment analysis, potentially leading to operationally and fiscally unaffordable systems.
- Risk Displacement: Accelerated pathways often shift complex risks forward in time, creating an "illusion of success" that satisfies near-term demands while deferring expensive consequences. Systems that perform well in limited demonstrations can mask deep-seated supportability issues that only become apparent after widespread adoption.
- Reduced Analytical Rigor: The pressure to meet deployment timelines can cause critical life cycle considerations — such as maintenance scalability and technical data rights — to receive insufficient attention.
- Asymmetric Accountability: Institutional incentives frequently reward leaders for visible, immediate delivery speed, while the resulting sustainment failures and escalating costs often emerge years later under different leadership.
How Pentagon is Implementing the Revolutionary FAR Overhaul
Stephanie Barna, Scott Freling, Daniel Raddenbach, National Defense
The Revolutionary FAR Overhaul (RFO) is a phased initiative launched in May 2025 to transform federal procurement by shifting non-statutory provisions out of the Federal Acquisition Regulation (FAR) and into non-regulatory guides. Rather than a single rulemaking event, the overhaul is being operationalized incrementally through agency deviations, creating a complex and fragmented landscape for defense contractors.
- Variable Adoption Speeds: Because agencies adopt model deviation text at different rates, the "applicable FAR" now varies significantly across different bureaus and buying activities.
- Pentagon-Specific Deviations: The Defense Department is subject to its own modernization executive order, resulting in extensive DFARS class deviations and revised procedures that may supersede standard FAR definitions.
- Formal Rulemaking: The current deviation-based landscape will eventually be replaced by a formal notice-and-comment rulemaking, which could introduce further changes to the existing overhaul structure.
Defense & Strategy
Image: Marinha do Brasil via Wikimedia Commons
Sinews of War at Sea: The Armed Services Need a Common Watercraft Family
Peter Mitchell & John Curl, War on the Rocks
To ensure operational readiness in a high-attrition maritime conflict, the U.S. military must shift away from service-specific, bespoke vessels in favor of a standardized, commercially derived family of common watercraft.
- Standardization Crisis: The joint force currently lacks a unified strategy, with the Army, Navy, and Marine Corps pursuing siloed programs that create fragmented maintenance and support chains.
- Scale Over Sophistication: Historical lessons from the Sherman tank and Liberty ships demonstrate that mass production and interchangeability are more decisive in protracted, high attrition, peer conflict than technically "exquisite" platforms.
- Readiness Collapse: Mission-capable rates for Army watercraft plummeted from 75% in 2020 to just 35% in 2024, exposing the failure of existing service-specific sustainment architectures.
- Commercial Solution: The Damen Landing Ship Transport, already chosen by the Navy and allies like Australia, provides a proven off-the-shelf design that could meet joint requirements more reliably than custom military builds.
- Integration Authority: Assigning U.S. Transportation Command as the lead integrator would allow requirements to be shaped across services before funding flows, reducing redundancies.
- Joint Training Hub: Establishing a shared crewing and maintenance pipeline would consolidate readiness standards and eliminate inefficient, parallel service pipelines.
Fences Not F-35s: Drone Attacks and the Illogic of Gulf Procurement
David B. Roberts, War on the Rocks
In light of the unsustainable depletion of high-end missile defenses in the Gulf, Gulf states must abandon the prestige-driven pursuit of expensive, high-tech weaponry in favor of a sustainable, layered defense architecture that prioritizes cost-effective and mass-produced solutions to counter asymmetrical drone threat.
- Practical Utility: The author advocates for an approach that emphasizes the value of widely deployed, mundane technologies used at scale over the pursuit of the newest inventions.
- Physical Resilience: A foundational layer of physical barriers, such as high-tensile mesh and tensioned cables, can effectively defeat low-flying drones by damaging airframes or detonating warheads before they hit critical infrastructure.
- Layered Architecture: The article proposes a layered architecture that integrates low-cost solutions - ranging from physical barriers like high-tensile mesh to AI-enhanced machine guns — to create a defense system characterized by industrial sustainability and long-term endurance.
- Creative Repurposing: The defense architecture should integrate existing assets, such as using helicopters for aerial gunnery against slow-moving drones and upgrading standard machine guns with affordable, AI-enabled fire control systems.
Industry
An AI-generated conception of Bath Iron Works, in Bath, Maine and a public power utility. BIW is one of just two commercial shipyards that build guided-missile destroyers. Treating builders of low-volume, high-value naval ships like public utilities would open up a range of benefits for shareholders, the companies, and the Navy. Generated with AI/Sora From BIW and Shutterstock images
Treat Naval Shipbuilders Like Public Utilities
Joshua Tallis, Proceedings
To revitalize the U.S. maritime industrial base, the government should transition naval shipbuilding for complex combatants into a regulated public utility model. This shift would replace volatile boom-and-bust procurement cycles with stable, recurring revenue and impartial oversight to ensure long-term national security readiness.
- Natural Monopolies: Complex shipbuilding is already self-evidently monopolistic, with only one or two companies capable of building nuclear carriers, submarines, or destroyers.
- Stable Financing: A utility designation would allow shipyards to issue government-backed infrastructure bonds, lowering borrowing costs for critical facility modernizations and long-term capital projects.
- Realistic Pricing: Moving beyond the illusion of a competitive market allows for pricing based on total shipyard investment needs, leading to more honest and sustainable cost estimates for the fleet.
Department of War Launches Interactive Investment Intelligence Center Tracking Transformative Industrial Base Revitalization
Department of War
The Department of War has launched the Investment Intelligence Center, an interactive public dashboard mapping over $6.7 billion in domestic supply chain investments to bolster national security.
- Massive Financial Map: The website tracks more than $6.7 billion in Defense Production Act (DPA) and Industrial Base Analysis and Sustainment (IBAS) funding allocated since 2015.
- Clear Demand Signal: By making these investments public, the Department of War communicates its most critical national security priorities to private capital markets and industry leaders to encourage aligned growth.
- Reshoring Critical Production: The initiative documents the government’s strategic progress toward onshoring essential manufacturing capabilities and reducing systemic reliance on adversarial supply chains.
- Advanced Data Visualization: Users can analyze the industrial base through three primary tools: an interactive map, a specialized Mekko chart, and a keyword-based portfolio search.
Interactive Tracker: Rebuilding the Arsenal of Freedom
Government Reports
An MH-139A Grey Wolf lifts Master Sgt. Michael Wright, an Air Force Global Strike Command Detachment 7 special mission aviator, into the air April 26 at Eglin Air Force Base, Fla.
Weapon Systems Annual Assessment: Requiring Mature Technologies Could Enable Shift to Rapid Delivery
Government Accountability Office
FY2026 Defense Budget: Funding for Selected Weapon Systems
Congressional Research Service
Cyber and Artificial Intelligence Provisions in the FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA)
Congressional Research Service
The U.S. Army and the Golden Dome Program
Congressional Research Service
The U.S. Army’s Long-Range Hypersonic Weapon (LRHW): Dark Eagle
Congressional Research Service
Research
Photo by BoliviaInteligente on Unsplash
Enhancing Decision Accuracy in DoD Acquisition: Integrating Artificial Intelligence with Reference Class Forecasting
Monte Ellis, Naval Postgraduate School
Persistent cost overruns and schedule delays, driven by optimism bias and planning fallacy, highlight the limits of traditional forecasting. While Reference Class Forecasting (RCF) enhances accuracy by anchoring estimates in historical data, its use in the DoD is limited by scalability and data-access challenges. This study uses a qualitative design combining policy review, comparative case analysis, and conceptual modeling. The findings indicate that AI can support the automation of reference-class construction from unstructured acquisition data and enable probabilistic forecasting, improving cost and schedule realism. The results also suggest that this approach can strengthen technology readiness assessments (TRA) by incorporating risk-based probability bands, thereby highlighting the value of probabilistic evidence in early acquisition decision-making. Recommendations include phased AI–RCF implementation, governance standards for transparency, and integration into milestone artifacts like TRAs and Life cycle Sustainment Plans. Institutionalizing this approach would embed empirical rigor into acquisition decisions, reduce systemic risk, and advance the DoD’s shift toward data-driven reform.
Category Management Feasibility for R706-Coded Service Acquisitions: A Comparative Analysis of the Three Marine Corps Contracting Offices in Marine Corps Regional Contracting Offices
Jeremiah Dye, Naval Postgraduate School
This study evaluates the feasibility of applying category management (CM) principles to Product Service Code (PSC) R706 logistics support services across three high-spend United States Marine Corps (USMC) contracting offices. Between fiscal years (FY) 2020 and 2025, the USMC obligated approximately $1.32 billion under PSC R706, yet procurement practices remained decentralized. Rather than viewing fragmentation as a policy failure, this research argues that contracting behavior reflects practical responses to organizational and operational constraints. Using a mixed-methods approach, the study analyzes procurement data from SAM.gov and incorporates qualitative insights from contracting personnel. Findings show heavy reliance on firm-fixed-price contracts, inconsistent use of indefinite-delivery indefinite-quantity (IDIQ) vehicles, and localized PSC and North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) coding practices. These patterns suggest limited enterprise coordination and uneven application of CM principles. Applying Principal–Agent theory, the study finds that operational tempo, personnel rotation, and limited centralized oversight contribute to fragmented procurement behavior. The study concludes that effective CM implementation requires stronger governance mechanisms, interoperable data systems, and formal coordination structures. A proposed CM Action Team model offers a framework to improve coordination efficiency while preserving operational flexibility.
Understanding Partner Preferences in the Selection of Defense Capabilities
Aidan Winn, Caitlin McCulloch, et al, RAND
This RAND Corporation report introduces an analytical framework to explain why international partners increasingly purchase military equipment from third-party suppliers rather than the United States. By evaluating eight distinct case studies, the text examines how nations balance practical trade-offs—such as acquisition costs, delivery speed, and technical functionality—against broader geopolitical interests and strategic autonomy. When the U.S. cannot meet specific demands, it should support purchases from trusted allies to ensure global interoperability and prevent partners from turning to strategic competitors like Russia or China.
Events
Capital Hill Modeling and Sim Expo
NTSA
17 July 2026
Washington, DC
Converge @ NPS
Naval Postgraduate School Foundation
22-24 July 2026
Monterey, CA
DIA TECHINT 2026
AFCEA
28-29 July 2026
Chantilly, VA
2026 Air and Space Summit
Potomac Officers Club
30 July 2026
McLean, VA
Space and Missile Defense Symposium
AFCEA
11-13 August 2026
Huntsville, AL
TechNet Augusta 2026
AFCEA
17-20 August 2026
Augusta, GA
MODSIM World 2026
National Training & Simulation Association (NTSA)
18-19 August 2026
Alexandria, VA
Fed Supernova
STATION Austin
18-20 August 2026
Austin, TX
DIB Accelerator 2026
Advanced Technology International (ATI)
25 - 27 August 2026
Philadelphia, PA
Prodacity 2026: Uncharted
Rise8
25-27 August 2026
Nashville, TN
OCEANS 2026 Monterey
IEEE Oceanic Engineering Society (OES)
21-24 September 2026
Monterey, CA
One more thing...
NEW YORK (July 4, 2026) - Chilean Navy tall ship Esmerelda and the Canadian Forces Snowbirds participate in the International Naval Review (INR) 250 Parade of Sail and Aerial Review 250 in New York, July 4, 2026. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 1st Class Zachary D. Behrend)
U.S. Navy Kicks Off Historic International Naval Review 250 in New York Harbor
US Navy News
On Saturday, July 4th, the U.S. Navy launched the International Naval Review (INR) 250 in New York Harbor, a week-long celebration that brings together ships, aircraft, and personnel from 55 allied nations to demonstrate the enduring strength of global sea power and international partnerships.
- Historic Milestone: The celebration honors the nation’s semiquincentennial, representing the largest international maritime gathering in U.S. history with a focus on 250 years of naval heritage.
- Naval Tradition: Serving as the official reviewing warship, the Arleigh Burke-class destroyer USS Farragut carried Vice President JD Vance through the international fleet to render honors according to centuries-old maritime tradition.
- Formidable Fleet: More than 70 naval vessels and international tall ships are assembled, including the aircraft carrier USS Nimitz and Spain's amphibious assault ship Juan Carlos I.
- Aviation Showcase: An International Aerial Review, led by the U.S. Navy Blue Angels, featured advanced platforms like the F-35B Lightning and the Navy’s first operational carrier-based unmanned refueler, the MQ-25A Stingray.
- Operational Scale: Over 20,000 Sailors, Marines, and Coast Guardsmen are involved in the festivities, which include a massive "Parade of Sail" transforming the harbor into a showcase of maritime strength.
Related: Watch: Sail4th 250 event for America's 250th anniversary
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