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Modeling Compound Threats to Interdependent Infrastructure Systems on Military Installations

Sponsor: Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD) Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP)


Project Abstract: The purpose of this project is to develop methods that measure worst-case disruptions across interdependent infrastructure systems on US Department of Defense (DoD) military installations and to create models that support DoD infrastructure planning and management. The extensive damages experienced in the wake of disasters like Hurricane Florence at Marine Corps Base Camp Lejeune revealed two important deficiencies in DoD infrastructure planning and recovery: (1) military installations lack models to measure losses resulting from interdependent failures across infrastructure (e.g., water and electricity), and (2) military leadership lacks methods to incorporate compound threats into infrastructure investment plans. 


Technical Approach: This project addresses deficiencies in infrastructure planning and recovery by applying modeling methods used to identify worst-case losses in national infrastructure systems (e.g., the US power grid) to interdependent systems on military installations. Specifically, this project centers on advancing established operations research models for worst-case disruptions called “attacker-defender” models. Research activities include the development of modeling architectures for interdependent infrastructure systems and novel attack scenarios to identify worst-case disruptions to compound threats. Modeling architectures and methods will be used to design a new mission dependency index that embeds the interruptibility, relocateability, and replaceability of interdependent assets. Finally, we will develop case studies that identify vulnerabilities and optimal protection capabilities for military installations and inform long-term investment and planning.


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Project Members

Naval Postgraduate School

Dr. Daniel Eisenberg, Operations Research, Principal Investigator

Dr. David Alderson, Operations Research

Tahmina Karimova, Program Manager, NPS Energy Academic Group

Jacob Wigal, GIS Specialist, NPS Energy Academic Group

US Department of Energy

Jennifer DeCesaro