Department of National Security Affairs - Department of National Security Affairs
No Future for the JCPOA? The Iranian Nuclear File and Proliferation Risk in the Middle East
For those interested in European perspectives on the JCPOA the following webinar of the German Institute for Global and Area Studies (GIGA) might be interesting on Thursday, 25 June, 0900 PST (it will be 1800 Berlin time): No Future for the JCPOA? The Iranian Nuclear File and Proliferation Risk in the Middle East.
The Iranian nuclear agreement (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action/JCPOA) has been in limbo since the US withdrawal from it. Iran continues to abide by its main stipulations but has signaled its unwillingness to do so in the long run. Its gradual roll back of compliance has prompted European powers to trigger the JCPOA’s dispute mechanism in January. France, Britain, and Germany have sought to keep up their end of the bargain by offering an alternative payment channel (INSTEX) to maintain trade in the face of renewed US sanctions, but Iran has not seen economic benefits from the agreement so far. The economic impact of US sanctions has been profound but has not prompted Iran to reconsider its posture. Tension in the region remains high and there is a risk of nuclear proliferation should the JCPOA fail.
What are the long-term implications of the US maximum pressure strategy and what are likely scenarios after the US presidential election in November? How would other regional powers such as Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Israel react if Iran withdrew from the JCPOA? Under which circumstances do sanctions typically end, and what would need to happen for the US to lift its renewed Iran sanctions? Is a more hopeful scenario of a renewed deal conceivable?
--Prof. Dr. James Russell, Associate Professor at the Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California
--Hana Attia, Research Fellow at the GIGA Institute for African Affairs
--Ambassador Dr. Christian Buck, Director of Middle East and North Africa, Federal Foreign Office
--Moderator: Prof. Dr. Eckart Woertz, Director of the GIGA Institute for Middle East Studies
Please confirm your registration by sending an e-mail to firstname.lastname@example.org
You will receive your personal participation link and further information by email before the online event starts. The event will be held in English. The Chatham House rules apply to this event.
For more information about the event, click here.